China’s robust steel exports in September would likely continue at least through the end of 2023 and may last over 2024 due to rising demand from emerging markets that would also support Chinese steel production, several market participants said Oct. 13.

          Strong steel exports have emerged as a major reason behind China’s elevated steel production in 2023, a year when the country’s largest steel demand driver, the property sector, has been in dire straits.

          Competitive Chinese steel prices, improving demand for Chinese steel from emerging markets, and China’s efforts to boost its “Belt and Road” projects have contributed to stronger exports this year, according to market participants.

          While some sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights they expected China’s steel exports to decline slightly in 2024, shipments are still expected at relatively high levels, mostly due to a growing demand from the emerging markets.

          Growth in China’s steel exports to emerging markets would continue in 2024, which should largely offset the expected decline in exports to markets such as Europe, South Korea and Turkey, market sources said.

          Strong exports behind strong production China’s finished steel exports in September reached the third highest so far in 2023 at 8.063 million mt, up 61.8% on the year, China Customs data showed Oct. 13. Daily exports in September were 0.6% higher than in August. January-September, steel exports increased by 31.8%, or 16.112 million mt, on the year to 66.818 million mt.

          China’s finished steel imports reached 640,000 mt in September, unchanged from August but down 28.2% on the year. January-September, finished steel imports fell by 31.7% on the year at 5.698 million mt.

          As a result, China’s net finished steel exports in the first nine months increased by 44.3%, or 18.755 million mt, on the year at 61.12 million mt.

          Over the same period, China’s crude steel production rose by about 15 million mt to 796 million mt, calculations of S&P Global based on data of China Iron & Steel Association and National Bureau of Statistics showed.

          The growth in net steel exports exceeded the growth of production, indicating the incremental steel production so far this year has been consumed by overseas markets.